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Sunday, April 10, 2011

Obsidium Ore Prospecting Crash Coming - MAYBE

Epic Gem Cooldown Removal?

The Data-Mined Cata Gems Vendor Price Change

So MMO-Champion has posted some data-mined information that shows a massive change to the vendor price of cut uncommon quality Cataclysm gems on the current PTR (Public Test Realm) build.

Jewelcrafting

•Bold Carnelian, Solid Zephyrite, Subtle Alicite, Perfect Quick Alicite, Sovereign Nightstone, Regal Jasper, Resolute Hessonite, and any cut of uncommon gem now sells to NPC for 75 silver instead of 9 gold.
Oh Fudge!  If you are like most players and sadly most bloggers, then the sky will be falling soon.  The gem vendor prices will be crashing, the obsidium shuffle will be dead, and all sorts of secondary markets will see major demand and supply changes.  Prospest and Sell all of your ore now before you get stuck with it.  Get out!  Unload your gems, unload your ores, get out from under the obsidium shuffle before it falls on you and leaves you with a major loss of profits.  Get out while you can!

Wait - Stop - Rewind....

Remember the Alchemy epic gem transmute cooldown removal fiasco from last expansion?  Remember when Just My Two Copper bought into the hype and cost a lot of Markco's lemmings a ton of gold from stockpiling for something that wasn't even real?  There was no epic gem cooldown removal, it was just changed to the midnight reset timer that is currently in use.  This may be the exact same type of issue.  I am here to tell you DON'T BELIEVE THE HYPE UNTIL ITS PROVEN TRUE.  Just ask Markco and all the other bloggers who told you to stockpile for the epic cooldown removal.

What We Know
  • Data-mined information isn't always correct.
  • Data-mined information doesn't always go to the live servers.
  • Data-mined information can change before being added to the patch notes.
  • Data-mined information cannot in any way be fully trusted.
  • The gem vendor price change is NOT in the patch notes.
  • There have been no blue posts about a change.
  • Blizzard would not "stealth change" something this big.
  • If true, it will be added to the official patch notes.
  • And even better:  The price of the uncut uncommon gems is 5 gold when vendored on the PTR.
Just more proof that something is mucked up.  The uncut gem sells for 5 gold, but the cut version sells for 75 silver.  If this isn't a huge red-flag, I don't know what else to show you.

Recommendations

The sky is not falling.  The markets aren't for sure going to be crashing.  These changes are not official.  Now it is possible that the price to cut and / or uncut gems will be lowered, but let's wait until it is official before we started to go to extremes.  One of the 2 prices (uncut and cut) is obviously wrong, so let's wait it out.  Something this big will be added to the patch notes.  Why not wait until it is official before believing all this hype about crashing market?  I'm not saying this is completely innaccurate and it could go to the live WoW servers, but be careful in what you follow until its official.  If we learned anything from the epic gem cooldown fiasco it is to only believe blue posts and patch notes as all it takes is one site promoting something to get a snowball rolling that may not even be true.   So don't be a little JMTC lemming.  Learn to think and analyze situations for yourself.

14 comments:

  1. Its funny u should bring this up because I was thinking the same thing to be honest... it does seem funny that people are buying into the mmo-champions notes which as of late I've considered the tmz of wow....
    Until the offical patch notes or ptr are updated with this change I'm continuing with the shuffle as usual.
    This could be a golden buying opportunity though as people who are unaware of when the patch hits could panic and wind up dumping all their obsidium ore thinking they don't have enough time to prospect it all
    I've already managed to snag 30-40 stacks of it at 30G a stack

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  2. First, kind of a plug, but I examine the epic gem cooldown vs this situation in a recent post.

    The gem vendor price change is NOT in the patch notes.
    There have been no blue posts about a change.
    If true, it will be added to the official patch notes.


    There is no real reason for this to be a literal patch note considering it is/would be, for all intents and purposes, a bug fix. How could it be considered intended for the uncommon gems to vendor for more than the rare gems? Or the uncommons to vendor for the SAME as epic gems of the last expansion?

    Blizzard would not "stealth change" something this big.

    lolwut? There are a ton of undocumented changes every single patch. Where were the patch notes revealing how the Deviate Scale Belt pattern was removed from the game (along with many other old-world recipes)? It is almost as though you have never searched Wowpedia for lists of undocumented changes. Here is the page for 4.03a.

    In any case, I agree on the points that data-mined info should be considered guilty until proven innocent, and that the sky is not falling. If the vendor price gets dropped, all that does is remove the mindless safety net, replacing it with one that is pegged at the value of the individual components of the Shuffle. Plus, you know, it might make sense to actually sell cut gems on the AH since the deposit fee won't be ridiculous.

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  3. Look at this list of undocumented changes for 4.0.6. Hell, there is a lot of stuff there that I didn't even realize, like the LFD tool no longer telling you whether a dungeon is in progress, the change to Transmute: Pyrium Bar, and a bunch of the rest.

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  4. Blarg, I think my first comment got stuck in moderation or deleted or whatever. If it mysteriously appears, I'll get rid of this one.

    The TL;DR of it is: A) there are undocumented changes every patch release, so just because we aren't seeing it explicitly spelled out that the vendor prices are changing, doesn't mean they won't. B) Nearly everyone admits this current vendor price is out of whack and NEEDS fixing. It doesn't make sense for uncommon gems to vendor for more than rare gems. C) The sky isn't falling either way, as all that changes is the price floor becomes variable instead of static - Ore will get pegged at the highest price part of the Shuffle.

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  5. As Azuriel pointed out there are many many changes made to the game, some small some actually quite huge, that are not documented in patch notes, so the lack of it in the patch notes doesn't mean that it won't go live.

    However, I certainly agree that there's no reason to scream about the sky falling. There's no guarantee this will happen, and even if it does, it's just an excuse to experiment with diversificaiton!

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  6. It's funny I saw no mention of the uncut prices changing, that makes this even more implausible in my mind. I'm going about business as usual until official patch notes or a more trustworthy source.

    Also, I agree it really won't effect true shuffling, rather effect the amount of gold being generated from the server, which may actually have much larger reprocussions than we realize. Or it might not :P

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  7. What about it already being on the ptr?

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  8. Speculation works both ways, just look at the people still making thousands off saronite ore.

    This was a pain though, I went to great measure to create posts on how people could get rid of all their gems and eternals in time before cataclysm launched.

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  9. In a way I could sorta kinda almost simmer profits in WOW down to 2 things... time... and time...

    Time as in the time it takes to prospect, mill, craft etc... "TIME IS MONEY FRIEND..."

    and Time as in patience on the long term markets... Like the daily ebb and flow, or the weekly, or the monthly as in the DMCs...

    (Okay, there is a 3rd... time spent farming the wild uncivilized lands. IMO, thats not what EPIC HEROs do. I farm the climate controled environment of the cultures gems... called capitol city Auction Houses.)

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  10. My response to the whole "The market is gonna crash" hysteria can be summed in these tweeted words; Patches & Notes? Speculation is a time waster! Diversify. Stockpile smartly. Adapt to what actually happens.

    Good post and it's funny to see how people just read and listen to the "Gurus" without thinking for themselves. It's actually that kind of people that i make most gold on, besides the completely clueless hehe.

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  11. Yes, they are. Just logged in and checked. Uncut gems are 5g to sell, cut gems are now 75s

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  12. Yup...it's true

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  13. Yep. Uncut = 5 gold
    Cut = 75 silver
    Perfect cut = 90 silver

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  14. The shuffle to vendors can still be profitable if the ore now settles in below 30G.

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