tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5047964376363882750.post8184856262655394929..comments2018-02-23T13:21:05.506-06:00Comments on Cold's Gold Factory - WoW AH & Hearthstone Tips, Heroes of the Storm: Reader Submission On Fortune Cards by WukamScott Smithhttps://plus.google.com/110159910816840736083noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5047964376363882750.post-46492108740179787222010-12-07T14:48:10.655-06:002010-12-07T14:48:10.655-06:00I think the key to whether a scribe should make ca...I think the key to whether a scribe should make cards will have nothing to do with the math of the expected value. Only relevant fact will be the margin between the average selling price and the mats value. <br /><br />Wakum's absolutely correct that mathematically, the expected value should drive the sales price. But it won't. Like in RL, only the perception of the expected value will. People would rather take a one in a billion shot at a $100,000,000 than keep their dollar (that's a 1000% markup there for those of you counting zeros). And there's a million different lotteries and casinos and slots and versions and combinations, for exactly the reason that there's no good formula to predict what the perception of value will be. The successful games convince people it's worth it - the unsuccessful ones don't. In RL, the math isn't a dominant factor--if it was, no one would ever do slots.<br /><br />I'm a math guy. But I say, forget the equasions and expected value. It's enough to blindly (and I believe safely) assume that the expected value will be too low to be worth my time to just mass produce and flip for myself. And then I will decide to mass produce or not based exclusively on the current AH sales price of the mats and the cards. <br /><br />My personal bet - cards won't be worth touching for at least another 6 months because of mat prices, and then they will be. But either way, only thing I need to make the call is an AH scan, not a calculator.Chadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05926949861046817974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5047964376363882750.post-22826813828380891082010-12-07T11:14:34.912-06:002010-12-07T11:14:34.912-06:00Sorry I was so brief, Wakum - the biggest distinct...Sorry I was so brief, Wakum - the biggest distinction with these cards is that they all have the same chance of winning, regardless of if the others are winners or not.<br /><br />This is different from drawing cards from a poker deck until you find an ace. If you draw a card that's not an ace and set it to the side, then you have a better chance of drawing an ace next time, as you've eliminated a losing card.<br /><br />Now imagine that you drew that card which wasn't an ace, but then returned it to the deck before drawing again.<br /><br />You could go ten minutes or longer without ever drawing an ace like that. That's how these cards are working (whic you seem to know, but this is another way of looking at it). Over a very large number (think hundreds, if not thousands) of draws, you'll average an ace roughly every 13 times (4 aces in a 52 card deck = 1/13 chance of an ace).Stedehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02394051960265634582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5047964376363882750.post-9836166902549917732010-12-07T11:07:37.556-06:002010-12-07T11:07:37.556-06:00Wakum,
My calculator is out of batteries but the ...Wakum,<br /><br />My calculator is out of batteries but the algebra works out to (999/1000)^1000 - that's the chance of not winning in 1000 draws when the odds are 1 in 1,000.Stedehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02394051960265634582noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5047964376363882750.post-36647820154678054202010-12-07T10:30:42.409-06:002010-12-07T10:30:42.409-06:00You're exactly right, Mr. GoZ, and I'm sor...You're exactly right, Mr. GoZ, and I'm sorry if I wasn't clear. The only "guarantee" in my example will be over ridiculously large amounts of attempts; you won't notice real profit every 1000, but closer to, as you pointed out, every 100,000.<br /><br />Though I am curious, where does the ~36% chance you mention come from?Wukamnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5047964376363882750.post-20419787879029714822010-12-07T09:47:20.260-06:002010-12-07T09:47:20.260-06:00This all assumes we can get accurate statistical d...This all assumes we can get accurate statistical data on the card distribution. I'm not convinced we can. I think Bliz will have no problem with tweaking this behind the scenes, which would invalidate our test data w/o actually letting us know they did it. Wouldn't be the first time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5047964376363882750.post-6385914342899191602010-12-07T09:18:35.043-06:002010-12-07T09:18:35.043-06:00Some of what you are saying here confuses positive...Some of what you are saying here confuses positive expected value with lack of risk. Even when the value of mats is less than the expected value of the fortune card and it is mathematically correct to gamble (assuming you have sufficient bankroll for your risk tolerance curve), there is still a great deal of risk.<br /><br />In the example you choose, crafting 1000 cards does not guarantee a 5k card. In fact, there is a ~36% chance that you will end up with absolutely nothing, having spent your 4k or whatever for mats. I had enough to say about this, that I put up a full post at my blog.<br /><br />http://gnomeozurich.blogspot.com/2010/12/fortune-cards.htmlThe Gnome of Zurichhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03203965173625552516noreply@blogger.com